Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The average count of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by new government data. However, security analysts have warned that homicide numbers may not indicate better countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is extremely significant,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it could mask days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.