Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.